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Starting (or Buying) an HVAC Business in 2026?

Starting (or Buying) an HVAC Business in 2026?

The truths you need to know

Jack Carr
October 27, 2025

Welcome to the JackQuisitions newsletter,

It’s a common question this time of the year: should you start/buy an HVAC business in the year to come?

There’s no definitive answer, but there are several “truths” that can point you in the right direction. And that’s what I cover in greater detail below.

What If Your CSRs Never Missed a Call Again?

Imagine a CSR team that never misses a call, books jobs instantly, and delivers a five-star experience every time.

That’s what Avoca delivers.

It’s more than a call center. It’s an AI-powered operations platform that automates, coaches, and grows your business.

Avoca helps home service companies:

Book jobs automatically using AI, with live agents as backup
Coach every CSR through call scoring, training insights, and accurate ServiceTitan tagging
Boost Google reviews and re-engage leads with outbound calls
Simplify scheduling so customers can book directly from your site—no back and forth

One platform. One source of truth. No more duct-taped systems.

Ready For Your Next Acquisition?

Check out these acquisition opportunities that caught my eye this week:

Residential HVAC company serving Myrtle Beach with $147K in revenue, $55K in cash flow, and 95 maintenance agreements, specializing in residential service with 280 active customers and $20K in equipment included.
Established septic service and installation company serving Eastern Iowa with $420K in revenue, $200K in cash flow, and 47 years of consistent performance.
Electrical contracting company serving the Northeast with $210K in revenue, $50K SDE, and nearly 40 years of experience specializing in high-voltage wiring, pole line construction, and exterior lighting projects.

Should You Start an HVAC Business in 2026?

HVAC stays hot because it never cools off. Systems fail when it’s 110 degrees or below zero. People don’t wait, they call. The demand is constant, the margins are high, and the work is hard enough to keep out most competitors.

That’s what makes it attractive. And that’s also what breaks new owners who rush in.

Where New Owners Burn Out

Ambition outruns patience. You buy the trucks, sign the lease, hire techs, and expect profit right away. Then summer hits. Phones explode, parts run short, and you find yourself in attics instead of the office.

The problem isn’t demand; it’s depth. HVAC takes technical know-how, licensed labor, and constant training. Skip any of it and you’ll burn cash fast.

Slow down. Build one truck that runs cleanly before adding a second.

The Better Entry Point

Starting from scratch can work. It just costs time and money. $150K before the first call. Licensing, tools, software, and mistakes stack up.

Buying right can shortcut years. A $400K to $800K acquisition can deliver $1M to $2M in revenue day one. Use an SBA 7(a) loan, buy at 2 to 3 times cash flow, and keep the sellers around long enough to teach you the ropes.

Skip the cheap trucks on Craigslist. Buy systems, people, and reputation.

What Actually Pays

HVAC lives and dies by the board.

Keep it full with service, repair, and replacement, not construction. Construction spikes, then stalls. Service compounds.

Typical tickets run $300 to $600. Gross margins land around 50 to 60 percent. Two trucks with steady calls can drive $1.5 million a year and a solid living. Add more trucks once the phones ring faster than you can answer them.

Marketing is the engine. Ignore it and your trucks sit idle while the bills keep coming.

People Over Everything

Technicians are gold. Good ones know it. They make six figures and rarely move.

Recruit through culture, not desperation. Offer training, steady hours, and fair pay. Build around two or three true A players and a team that supports them. A few good techs beat a dozen bad hires every time.

Who HVAC Is Really For

If you’re technical, disciplined, and unafraid of hot attics and hard work, this trade can build generational wealth.

If not, buy bigger. Acquire a business with managers, call-takers, and lead techs who fill your gaps.

Either way, HVAC rewards owners who combine trade skill, marketing muscle, and patient execution.

Bottom line: HVAC can print cash, but only for operators who slow down, learn the work, and compound in one lane for a long time.

Here’s some more thoughts on this:

Get Your Finances Out of the Way

Appletree Business Services handles your bookkeeping, payroll, taxes, and acquisition support so you can focus on what matters: running your business.

They know the trades inside and out—from HVAC and plumbing to ServiceTitan and Housecall Pro—and give you clear answers fast.

Bonus: my readers get a free financial and tax review or 10% off QOE work for their next acquisition.

Tell Me What You’re Thinking

Is 2026 the year you start, acquire, or scale your HVAC business?

Share your feedback with me on X or LinkedIn.

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Disclosure: Some of the content and links in this newsletter are sponsored or affiliate links, which means we may receive payment or earn a commission if you click through or purchase. However, all opinions expressed are entirely my own.